How long would it take Earth to recover from a comet?

If the previously unknown "metal" was from the Island of Stability, that might make it resistant to vaporization prior to impact, leaving you with a large, mine-able deposit under the wreckage of its arrival.

However, being super-heavy as IOS elements are expected to be, its impact crater would probably be considerably large than is expected for a meteor of its size. So take a real world meteor crater and multiply its diameter a few times while holding the actual meteor size constant.

The Ice Limit is an excellent fictional story about exactly this kind of meteor and might be a good resource for the technical details of size, weight, crater size, etc.

As others have said, the recovery time for a society suffering a majro meteor will largely be a function of its size. I would suggest imposing environmental difficulties to the mining process (maybe it is in the artic or at the bottom of the ocean), that way the mining process can still take decades, even if the meteor itself is comparatively small.

Around 66 million years ago, a city-sized space rock splashed into the Gulf of Mexico and killed 75 percent of life on Earth, including the dinosaurs. We all know that story. But — at least for the survivors — the aftermath might not have been as hellish as we thought.

New evidence shows that within just a few years of this Armageddon, small worm-like creatures were already burrowing in the silty seafloor at the crater. That’s according to research published Wednesday in the journal Nature. The results came after roughly two years of analyzing rock cores collected from the impact site.

“It was really surprising to us to find that (the aftermath) wasn't hostile to life at all,” says geologist Christopher Lowery of the University of Texas at Austin, who led the study. “The recovery was really quick.”

“I think that shows how short-lived these effects from the impact were,” he adds.

The team’s findings are surprising considering the conventional depictions of the so-called Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction, or K/Pg. Textbooks describe a global firestorm and toxic fallout, followed by years of photosynthesis-blocking particulate pollution, nuclear winter and climate change.

A study just last week even showed that increased carbon dioxide levels would have spiked global temps by a whopping 9 degrees Fahrenheit for perhaps 300,000 years. But the authors of this latest paper say their research doesn't necessarily contradict those findings. Rather, it shows that once the initial dust settled, the survivors almost instantly spread into new environments to take advantage of changed conditions and a lack of competition.

“The kill mechanisms were quick — there and then gone,” Lowery says. So, while the asteroid was devastating and climate change lasted for ages, life recovered because there wasn't anything terribly toxic to stop it. And even the shape of the crater, called Chicxulub, could've played a role. Instead of a perfect circle, it has more of a Pac-Man shape. One side opens up to deeper ocean water. That likely allowed nutrients to flow into the crater, providing a vital food supply for colonists.

Scientists say this species of plankton, Parvularugoglobigerina eugubina, was among the first new species to appear in the aftermath of the asteroid strike. This particular organism was discovered in a core drilled from the impact site in 2016. (Credit: Christopher Lowery, The University of Texas at Austin)

Northern Bias

For years, scientists have debated this aftermath. Some evidence suggested a disproportionate die off with certain regions hit harder than others. And many believed that — perhaps because the asteroid came in at an angle — the northern hemisphere lost more species than the southern hemisphere.

But it was always hard to say why that might have happened. Perhaps the asteroid scattered toxic metals that polluted certain regions? Yet no traces of such metals were ever found. And, logically, if the worst damage happened close to the impact site, life should have recovered the slowest at the crater itself.

That’s not at all what scientists found. Instead, their findings imply life quickly recolonized ground zero and the rocks show robust ecosystems returning long before Earth’s climate recovered. “We have found a healthy recovery system within 30,000 years of the impact,” Lowery says. “I think that clearly puts to bed the idea of a distance effect.”

And he’s not alone in thinking this new evidence could help settle that long running debate. The study’s co-authors include many of the top names in the field — scientists who’d previously entertained the idea that the northern hemisphere had it worse. Instead, Lowery says their study lends support to an alternative idea that suggests the recovery — not the environmental effects — varied by region for more Darwinian reasons.

So, the way species interacted and competed in these recovering ecosystems could have dictated how long it took to recover. He’s recently submitted an additional research paper that could provide support for that idea.

Scientists used the Liftboat Myrtle to collect cores from the impact crater in 2016. (Credit: Eric Betz/Discover magazine)

Obvious In Hindsight

Lowery and his colleagues, including Timothy Bralower of Pennsylvania State University, intensely studied a small chunk of the thousands of feet of core scientists collected from Chicxulub. The sediment in this section captures unimaginable destruction — fiery impact, mega-tsunamis, global debris fallout. But immediately after that, it shows the fine silt building slowly, as sediment falls to the ocean floor.

The team used simple fluid equations to calculate how long it takes for that sediment to settle. Similar layers were studied after the recent Haitian earthquake, giving them real world examples. And based on those calculations, the team says their burrowing microfossils conservatively appeared six years after the impact.

It’s also worth noting that scientists expected to find life at ground zero, they just didn’t expect it to look anything like this. Lowery and others thought they’d uncover the fossilized remains of volcanic hydrothermal vents that smoldered at the impact site for hundreds of thousands of years. And maybe those vents would’ve created a habitat for extreme lifeforms like those found elsewhere along the seafloor. (Another group of scientists is still working on that aspect and could have indeed found such an environment in other samples collected during the Chicxulub drilling expedition.)

But the lifeforms they published Wednesday aren’t extreme at all. Many are common kinds of tiny forams. In hindsight, the researchers say their results shouldn’t be that surprising. A vast volume of ocean water surrounded the massive impact crater, and its hydrothermal vents would only cover a small region. That leaves ample territory for more conventional lifeforms.

“It’s the kind of thing that, once you think about it, makes total sense,” he says. “It was a cool result.” Among the microfossils they found are tiny plankton whose ancestors eventually repopulated Earth’s oceans. They increase in abundance higher up in the rock layers as life fully recovers.

Interestingly, one species, called Guembelitria, lived exclusively in shallow marine waters during the days of the dinosaurs. But with other tiny plankton species wiped out, they quickly spread to new environments, including the deeper waters at the impact site. “It's the cockroach that survived,” Lowery says. “When it had it’s opportunity, it came out and dominated everywhere.”

How long would it take Earth to recover from a comet?
An artist's rendering of Chicxulub, the asteroid believed to have wiped out large dinosaurs and reshaped parts of the world. Elenarts/iStock

No one could have seen the catastrophe coming. Dinosaurs stalked each other and munched on lush greens as they had for over 170 million years. Pterosaurs soared in the air, mosasaurs splashed in the seas, and tiny mammals scurried through the forest on what was just another day in the Late Cretaceous.

Then the world changed in an instant. A chunk of extraterrestrial rock over 6 miles wide slammed into what would eventually become known as Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. The shock was a planet-scale version of a gunshot. Earth would never be the same again.

But what actually happened on the day the asteroid struck? By sifting through the rock record, experts are putting together a nightmarish vision of one of the worst days in the history of our planet.

Some of the damage is easy to assess. The crater created by the impact is over 110 miles in diameter, a massive scar half covered by the Gulf of Mexico. But the devil is in the geological details at places around the world, such as signs of a massive tsunami around the Gulf coast. The impact struck with so much force and displaced so much water that within 10 hours an immense wave tore its way along to the coast.

What settled out is a geologic mess: ocean sand on what would have been dry land, and fossils of land plants in areas that should have been the ocean, in a mixed up slurry of ancient sediment. In the part of the world where the tsunami struck, these layers mark a violent boundary between the last day of the Cretaceous and the first of the following period, the Paleocene.

Not that the effects were limited to the area of impact. The blast was enough to cause geologic disturbances, such as earthquakes and landslides, as far away as Argentina—which in turn created their own tsunamis. As dangerous as the waves were to life in the western hemisphere, however, the heat was worse.

When the asteroid plowed into the Earth, tiny particles of rock and other debris were shot high into the air. Geologists have found these bits, called spherules, in a 1/10-inch-thick layer all around the world.

“The kinetic energy carried by these spherules is colossal, about 20 million megatons total or about the energy of a one megaton hydrogen bomb at six kilometer intervals around the planet,” says University of Colorado geologist Doug Robertson. All of that energy was converted to heat as those spherules started to descend through the atmosphere 40 miles up, about 40 minutes after impact. As Robertson and colleagues wrote in a paper titled “Survival in the First Hours of the Cenozoic”: “For several hours following the Chicxulub impact, the entire Earth was bathed with intense infrared radiation from ballistically reentering ejecta.”

Earth became a world on fire. The friction of falling made each spherule an incandescent torch that quickly and dramatically heated the atmosphere. Any creature not underground or not underwater—that is, most dinosaurs and many other terrestrial organisms—could not have escaped it. Animals caught out in the open may have died directly from several sustained hours of intense heat, and the unrelenting blast was enough in some places to ignite dried-out vegetation that set wildfires raging.

On land, at least, much of Cretaceous life may have been wiped out in a matter of hours. The heat pulse and its after-effects alone severely winnowed back life’s diversity. But the situation turned out to be even more dire.

How long would it take Earth to recover from a comet?
These tiny spherules (about three hundredths of an inch thick) were found in Haiti at the point in the rock marking the transition from the Cretaceous to the Paleogene (the K-Pg boundary, 65 million years ago). As they fell back to earth they would have heated the atmosphere and bathed all living things in intense heat. David A. Kring

“The climate impact was enormous,” Robertson says. “Dust and soot from the impact and fires would have created an ‘impact winter’ with zero sunlight reaching the surface of the Earth for a year or so.” Geologists can see this directly as a thin layer of soot that coincides with the layer between the Cretaceous and the following period—called the K/Pg boundary—all around the world.

Organisms that had somehow managed to survive the intense heat and fires now faced a new threat. “Loss of sunlight would have eliminated the phytoplankton base of almost all aquatic food chains and caused complete collapse of aquatic ecosystems,” Robertson says, and terrestrial plants were likewise denied precious sunlight for photosynthesis. All told, what evolution took over 180 million years to build up could have been cut back in less than the lifetime of an individual Tyrannosaurus rex. Death came quickly at the end of the Cretaceous.

Taking a census of the damage is difficult, partially, Robertson says, because dinosaurs get a disproportionate amount of attention. Pollen and plankton, Robertson points out, actually provide a more refined picture of what happened in the wake of the impact. Nevertheless, the available fossil record shows that about 75 percent of known species completely disappeared, and things probably weren’t rosy for the survivors. “It’s is reasonable to suppose that the 25 percent of surviving species had near-total mortality,” Robertson says, but these fortunate organisms were the ones that would go on to set the stage for the next 66 million years of evolutionary history.

Scientists will continue to pore over the details. Who could resist one of the greatest murder mysteries of all time? But there’s something else that keeps pulling our attention to that terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day 66 million years ago. We celebrate dinosaurs for their longstanding dominance of the planet, taking them up as totems of success. But if they could be so quickly and irrevocably destroyed, then we could also suffer the same fate. By looking at the ancient record of worldwide death, we face the mortality of our species and the question of what our long term survival might demand of us.