The J-shaped and the S-shaped curves are different in the following ways: J-shaped Curve S-shaped Curve The exponential growth of population over time. The sigmoid or the logistic growth of population over time. It occurs when there are plenty of resources. It occurs when the resources are limited. It occurs in two phases- log and lag phase. It occurs in lag phase, log phase, deceleration phase and stationary phase. The stationary is not usually reached. The stationary phase is reached. It takes into account the carrying capacity. It does not take into account the carrying capacity.
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The S-Curve
Exponential growth usually runs only for as long as there are easily available resources. As a population’s interaction space expands to cover most of the relevant environment (a biome, a market, the easily available idea, knowledge, or variation space), its replication will start to slow, and it eventually saturates, reaching the “carrying capacity” of that particular environment, a point on the X-axis at or just above the saturation level.
Forecaster Theodore Modis has done a lot of deep thinking about S-curves. His books Predictions (1992) and Predictions: Ten Years Later (2002), are great reads, and offer many insightful examples of these curves applied to processes of change. Nevertheless, he tends to see them everywhere, and to discount Exponential growth (E-curves) and ignore superexponential growth (J-curves), as in his article, The Singularity Myth, Technological Forecasting & Social Change (2006). We should always keep in mind that our favorite curves may not be the ones that are the most relevant to the particular system or period under study.
S-Curve and Market Phases of Technology Diffusion (Adoption)
Phases of technology adoption follow an S-curve, as Everett Rogers described in his classic, Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Ed. (2003). As adoption phases progress, from Innovators to Laggards, an initial exponential growth phase goes through an inflection, then saturates.
Successive S-Curves of Mass-Market Technology Adoption (Excluding Software)
The history of mass-market technology adoption shows these S-curves in historical data. Note that highly valuable technologies, like automobiles and radio, had nearly as steep initial adoption curves in the 1910’s and 1920’s as the initial curves for such modern must-haves as cellphones and the internet, in the 1990s. A range of factors, like technology cost, value, ease of use, and marketing, are important to driving these S-curves to their saturation points.
Yet this big picture perspective also shows a general speedup in adoption of valuable new innovations the more connected we become. More recent innovations, like computers, cellphones, and the internet, have very steep exponential phases. Adoption of dematerialized products and services, like new software platforms or apps, is vastly faster still. If those had been included, this chart would be an even more valuable metric of accelerating adoption.