November 19, 2022 November 19, 2022/ Steven Bragg
Accounts receivable is the amount owed to a seller by a customer. As such, it is an asset, since it is convertible to cash on a future date. Accounts receivable is listed as a current asset on the balance sheet, since it is usually convertible into cash in less than one year.
If the receivable amount only converts to cash in more than one year, it is instead recorded as a long-term asset on the balance sheet (possibly as a note receivable). Since there is a possibility that some receivables will never be collected, the account is offset (under the accrual basis of accounting) by an allowance for doubtful accounts; this allowance contains an estimate of the total amount of bad debts related to the receivable asset. The net reported amount of the gross receivable and the allowance is the amount of receivables outstanding that management actually expects to collect.
Revenue is the gross amount recorded for the sale of goods or services. This amount appears in the top line of the income statement.
The balance in the accounts receivable account is comprised of all unpaid receivables. This typically means that the account balance includes unpaid invoice balances from both the current and prior periods. Conversely, the amount of revenue reported in the income statement is only for the current reporting period. This means that the accounts receivable balance tends to be larger than the amount of reported revenue in any reporting period, especially if payment terms are for a longer period than the duration of the reporting period.
In a situation where a company does not allow any credit to customers - that is, all sales are paid for up front in cash - there are no accounts receivable.
Anyone analyzing the results of a business should compare the ending accounts receivable balance to revenue, and plot this ratio on a trend line. If the ratio is declining over time, it means that the company is having increasing difficulty collecting cash from its customers, which could lead to financial problems. This situation may arise when a business increases the amount of credit it is offering to riskier customers.
November 19, 2022/ Steven Bragg/
Balance Sheet Core Concepts
Shareholders' Equity Section
How to Calculate Accounts Receivable (Step-by-Step)
Under accrual accounting, the accounts receivable line item, often abbreviated as “A/R”, refers to payments not yet received by customers that paid using credit rather than cash.
Conceptually, accounts receivable represents a company’s total outstanding (unpaid) customer invoices.
On the balance sheet, accounts receivable is categorized as an asset since it represents a future economic benefit to the company.
However, the amount charged to the customer is recognized as revenue once the customer is billed, despite the cash still being in the possession of the customer.
Whether cash payment was received or not, revenue is recognized and the amount to be paid by the customer can be found on the accounts receivable line item.
Accounts Receivable (A/R) – Current Asset on Balance Sheet
If a company’s accounts receivable balance increases, more revenue has been earned with payment in the form of credit, so more cash payments must be collected in the future.
On the other hand, if a company’s A/R balance declines, the payments billed to the customers that paid on credit were received in cash.
To reiterate, the relationship between accounts receivable and free cash flow (FCF) is as follows:
- Increase in Accounts Receivable → The company’s sales are increasingly paid with credit as the form of payment instead of cash.
- Decrease in Accounts Receivable → The company has successfully retrieved cash payments for credit purchases.
With that said, an increase in A/R represents a reduction in cash on the cash flow statement, whereas a decrease in A/R reflects an increase in cash.
On the cash flow statement, the starting line item is net income, which is then adjusted for non-cash add-backs and changes in working capital in the cash from operations (CFO) section.
Since an increase in A/R signifies that more customers paid on credit during the given period, it is shown as a cash outflow (i.e. “use” of cash) – which causes a company’s ending cash balance and free cash flow (FCF) to decline.
While the revenue has technically been earned under accrual accounting, the customers have delayed paying in cash, so the amount sits as accounts receivables on the balance sheet.
A/R Example: Amazon (AMZN), Fiscal Year 2022
The screenshot below is from the latest 10-K filing by Amazon (AMZN) for fiscal year ending 2021.
Amazon.com, Inc. 10-K Filing, 2022 (Source: AMZN 10-K)
How to Forecast Accounts Receivable (A/R)
For purposes of forecasting accounts receivable, the standard modeling convention is to tie A/R to revenue since the two are closely linked.
The days sales outstanding (DSO) metric is used in the majority of financial models to project A/R.
DSO measures the number of days on average it takes for a company to collect cash from customers that paid on credit.
The formula for days sales outstanding (DSO) is calculated as follows.
Historical DSO = Accounts Receivable ÷ Revenue x 365 Days
To properly forecast A/R, it’s recommended to follow historical patterns and how DSO has trended in the past couple of years, or to just take an average if there appear to be no significant shifts.
Then, the projected accounts receivable balance is equal to:
Projected Accounts Receivable = (DSO Assumptions Assumption ÷ 365) x Revenue
If the days sales outstanding (DSO) of a company have been increasing over time, that implies the company’s collection efforts require improvement, as more A/R means more cash is tied up in operations.
But if DSO declines, that implies the company’s collection efforts are improving, which has a positive impact on the cash flows of the company.
Accounts Receivable Calculator – Excel Model Template
We’ll now move to a modeling exercise, which you can access by filling out the form below.
Step 1. Historical Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) Calculation
In our illustrative example, we’ll assume we have a company with $250 million in revenue in Year 0.
Moreover, at the beginning of Year 0, the accounts receivable balance is $40 million but the change in A/R is assumed to be an increase of $10 million, so the ending A/R balance is $50 million in Year 0.
For Year 0, we can calculate the days sales outstanding (DSO) with the following formula:
- DSO – Year 0 = $50m / $250m * 365 = 73 Days
Step 2. Accounts Receivable Projection Analysis
As for the projection period from Year 1 to Year 5, the following assumptions will be used:
- Revenue – Increase by $20m per Year
- DSO – Increase by $5m per Year
Now, we’ll extend the assumptions until we reach a revenue balance of $350 million by the end of Year 5 and a DSO of 98 days.
Starting from Year 0, the accounts receivable balance expands from $50 million to $94 million in Year 5, as captured in our roll-forward.
The change in A/R is represented on the cash flow statement, where the ending balance in the accounts receivable (A/R) roll-forward schedule flows in as the ending balance on the current period balance sheet.
Since the DSO is increasing, the net cash impact is negative, and the company would likely need to consider making adjustments and identify the source of the growing collection issues.